Scott Kveton

I made some pretty lofty predictions way back in January 2007 about where OpenID would be by now. Not everyone thought I was of sane mind. Let’s see how I did … predictions for 2008 are forthcoming … :-)

1. OpenID 2.0: First and foremost, OpenID 2.0 will get out the door. Not only will the spec be completed, but we’ll get the libraries out the door as well. I know I’ve been saying this for six months but I feel pretty confidant of it now. :-)

Wow. This was closer than I thought it would be. On December 5th, 2007 the authors of the OpenID Authentication specification got up on stage at IIW 2007b and announced OpenID 2.0 final. By the skin of our (my?) chinny-chin-chin.

2. 100 million users with OpenID’s: Yep, I’m going to say it. By the end of 2007 there will be 100 million OpenID enabled users out there. We’re at 16 million right now. Only 84 million more to go!

Depends on who you talk to about this but the ballpark figure (see slide 10) right now is 150 million OpenID’s enabled out in the wild.

3. 7500 OpenID Enabled Sites: By the end of 2007 there will be 7500 OpenID enabled sites. As of today, we’ve seen over 750 OpenID relying parties come across MyOpenID and in recent weeks the pace is picking up. We’re seeing 10-15 new relying parties a day. I think we’ll hit 7500 by years end.

According to this article that came from interviews with the JanRain guys, we’re at over 8,000 and growing at 5% week-over-week. We’re still seeing the momentum and that’s fantastic. Running myOpenID gives them insight into that number better than just about anybody else in the OpenID eco-system.

4. Big player adopts OpenID: One of the big players will adopt OpenID. That could be Google, Yahoo!, Apple, AOL, Digg (yes, they are big like it or not), etc. I don’t have one single data point on this; its more of a gut feeling. When one goes, I think more will follow there after.

So far we’ve got Google, AOL and Digg that have adopted this. Digg has announced support for it but is still on somebody’s sh*tlist for not following through.

5. OpenID Community formalizes: The OpenID community will formalize itself in some sort of trade organization or non-profit foundation. This will be a place for things like IP (domain names, etc) and trademarks to land. It will help solidify OpenID especially as companies start to build businesses around this technology.

The OpenID Foundation was incorporated as a 501(c)3 non-profit in the State of Oregon in May of 2007. Look for a membership drive coming in January 2008 and lots of exciting announcements in this respect (note: I’m cheating on this one; I’m on the board).

6. OpenID Services: We’ll see some very exciting services emerge that take advantage of OpenID’s. Its more than just that one username and password. Its being able to take advantage of the fact that you are the same person from site to site. This has some amazing possibilities in the realms of reputation and communication that are the most obvious. The best part about this one is that the really, really killer service hasn’t even been thought of.

This is easily the most nebulous and thus most difficult to quantify. Arguably the most innovative service right now is Pibb from JanRain (full disclosure: I used to work there so of course I think its cool). Lifestrea.ms is very promising as well.

Well, there you have it. Worst case we’re looking at 5 out of 6 (considering my bias for #6 I’m willing to eat that one) … that’s pretty good for a year. Its been amazing to watch the committed community around OpenID keep plugging along against all odds. I for one know I have never heard more “you can’t do that” or “that’ll never work” in my entire life. Well folks, we’re just gettin’ started here. 2008 is going to be about blowing the doors off the “social web” and making “social networking” a feature on every single site you visit. But more on that later …

One thing I do truly believe about OpenID and 2008 is that continued adoption is going to be driven by applications that solve specific user pain and not the want for an “open identity platform”. We’ve got the ball rolling with OpenID, OAuth and Microformats in 2007 and as I always say; the best is yet to come.

Happy holidays everybody!