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2007: OpenID Predictions

January 4, 2007 in Identity, JanRain, OpenID by kveton

Yeah, I’m a little late to the party on making predictions. I figure everyone else is doing it, so why can’t I? :-)

  1. OpenID 2.0: First and foremost, OpenID 2.0 will get out the door. Not only will the spec be completed, but we’ll get the libraries out the door as well. I know I’ve been saying this for six months but I feel pretty confidant of it now. :-)
  2. 100 million users with OpenID’s: Yep, I’m going to say it. By the end of 2007 there will be 100 million OpenID enabled users out there. We’re at 16 million right now. Only 84 million more to go!
  3. 7500 OpenID Enabled Sites: By the end of 2007 there will be 7500 OpenID enabled sites. As of today, we’ve seen over 750 OpenID relying parties come across MyOpenID and in recent weeks the pace is picking up. We’re seeing 10-15 new relying parties a day. I think we’ll hit 7500 by years end.
  4. Big player adopts OpenID: One of the big players will adopt OpenID. That could be Google, Yahoo!, Apple, AOL, Digg (yes, they are big like it or not), etc. I don’t have one single data point on this; its more of a gut feeling. When one goes, I think more will follow there after.
  5. OpenID Community formalizes: The OpenID community will formalize itself in some sort of trade organization or non-profit foundation. This will be a place for things like IP (domain names, etc) and trademarks to land. It will help solidify OpenID especially as companies start to build businesses around this technology.
  6. OpenID Services: We’ll see some very exciting services emerge that take advantage of OpenID’s. Its more than just that one username and password. Its being able to take advantage of the fact that you are the same person from site to site. This has some amazing possibilities in the realms of reputation and communication that are the most obvious. The best part about this one is that the really, really killer service hasn’t even been thought of.

So that’s it. Those are my predictions. Not that crazy but I thought I would at least get them out there. :-)

About

This is the blog of Scott Kveton, digital identity promoter, open source contributor, avid gardener, passionate pizza maker, loving husband and proud father. Read More ...

Also Known As

Once or twice in my life people have mis-spelled my name (I know, its a shocker) ... you may have seen my lastname appear as any or all of the following:

Kverton • Kvelton • Keaton
Rueton • Kreton • Kventon
Kevton • Kevin • Smith (true story)
Kueton• Kvetan• Keveton


    11 comments

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    January 7, 2007 at 2:10 pm

    Trackback from //dopefreshtightblog - OpenID in 2007...

    January 5, 2007 at 8:19 am

    Kick Willemse

    I like the predictions and think they are realistic. I just miss one point which I think is very important for the acceptance of openID being more than just a new identity technology. In 2007 I hope the trust part is also added to the specifications. So adding the dimensions of the registration process and authentication process (Token type). I like the initiatives on the openid assertion: http://openid.net/pipermail/specs/2006-November/000964.html

    If trust is added I think the number of users and services would grow rapidly.

    January 5, 2007 at 6:54 pm

    Dmitry Shechtman

    @Scott

    From your lips to God’s ear!

    Looks like you enabled MyBlogLog in in spite of its failure to support OpenID. Maybe they need to be reminded of it once in a while ;-)

    @Kick

    I totally agree with you on the importance of trust for the acceptance of OpenID. That would also address the spam issue, as well as put an end to attempts at centralization (e.g. BotBouncer).

    I suggested a simple addition to the specification that would allow to accomplish this (openid.authority), although I never made a formal proposal of it.

    January 6, 2007 at 3:55 pm

    kevindewalt

    Scott,

    Awesome post as always. I have only been following OpenId recently but am very excited about the possibilities.

    One of the beauties of the current standard is that it is simple to explain and understand.

    Do you have any references that explain the 2.0 standard in layman’s terms? What will be the changes and benefits.

    Thanks again,

    Kevin Dewalt

    January 11, 2007 at 4:36 pm

    flavien

    test comment with openid

    September 3, 2007 at 8:19 am

    SVPN Cop

    Not many quality OpenID sites yet it seems. They need to convert some people fast.

    Note: This post is over a year and a half old. You may want to check later in this blog to see if there is new information relevant to your comment.