Scott Kveton

2007: OpenID Predictions

Yeah, I’m a little late to the party on making predictions. I figure everyone else is doing it, so why can’t I? :-)

OpenID 2.0: First and foremost, OpenID 2.0 will get out the door. Not only will the spec be completed, but we’ll get the libraries out the door as well. I know I’ve been saying this for six months but I feel pretty confidant of it now. :-)
100 million users with OpenID’s: Yep, I’m going to say it. By the end of 2007 there will be 100 million OpenID enabled users out there. We’re at 16 million right now. Only 84 million more to go!
7500 OpenID Enabled Sites: By the end of 2007 there will be 7500 OpenID enabled sites. As of today, we’ve seen over 750 OpenID relying parties come across MyOpenID and in recent weeks the pace is picking up. We’re seeing 10-15 new relying parties a day. I think we’ll hit 7500 by years end.
Big player adopts OpenID: One of the big players will adopt OpenID. That could be Google, Yahoo!, Apple, AOL, Digg (yes, they are big like it or not), etc. I don’t have one single data point on this; its more of a gut feeling. When one goes, I think more will follow there after.
OpenID Community formalizes: The OpenID community will formalize itself in some sort of trade organization or non-profit foundation. This will be a place for things like IP (domain names, etc) and trademarks to land. It will help solidify OpenID especially as companies start to build businesses around this technology.
OpenID Services: We’ll see some very exciting services emerge that take advantage of OpenID’s. Its more than just that one username and password. Its being able to take advantage of the fact that you are the same person from site to site. This has some amazing possibilities in the realms of reputation and communication that are the most obvious. The best part about this one is that the really, really killer service hasn’t even been thought of.

So that’s it. Those are my predictions. Not that crazy but I thought I would at least get them out there. :-)

About The Author

kveton

4th

January 2007

bykveton
posted in Identity, JanRain, OpenID
11 Comments »

6 Comments Add Yours ↓

The upper is the most recent comment

Kick Willemse #

01.05.2007 08:19
1
I like the predictions and think they are realistic. I just miss one point which I think is very important for the acceptance of openID being more than just a new identity technology. In 2007 I hope the trust part is also added to the specifications. So adding the dimensions of the registration process and authentication process (Token type). I like the initiatives on the openid assertion: http://openid.net/pipermail/specs/2006-November/000964.html

If trust is added I think the number of users and services would grow rapidly.
Dmitry Shechtman #

01.05.2007 18:54
2
@Scott

From your lips to God’s ear!

Looks like you enabled MyBlogLog in in spite of its failure to support OpenID. Maybe they need to be reminded of it once in a while ;-)

@Kick

I totally agree with you on the importance of trust for the acceptance of OpenID. That would also address the spam issue, as well as put an end to attempts at centralization (e.g. BotBouncer).

I suggested a simple addition to the specification that would allow to accomplish this (openid.authority), although I never made a formal proposal of it.
kevindewalt #

01.06.2007 15:55
3
Scott,

Awesome post as always. I have only been following OpenId recently but am very excited about the possibilities.

One of the beauties of the current standard is that it is simple to explain and understand.

Do you have any references that explain the 2.0 standard in layman’s terms? What will be the changes and benefits.

Thanks again,

Kevin Dewalt
flavien #

01.11.2007 16:36
4
test comment with openid
http://katzenjammer.myopenid.com/ #

01.12.2007 17:05
5
Just testing openid. Thanks
SVPN Cop #

09.03.2007 08:19
6
Not many quality OpenID sites yet it seems. They need to convert some people fast.

4Trackbacks/Pingbacks

//dopefreshtightblog 07 01 07
Yahoo ID和OpenID帐号整合 at OpenID Planet 11 02 07
Yahoo ID和OpenID帐号整合 | OpenID Planet 13 02 07
The Security Roundtable » Blog Archive » The Security Roundtable for February 2007 - OpenID 15 03 07
Microsoft to drop Passport for OpenID « Adam On Life 01 04 07

2007: OpenID Predictions

About The Author

kveton

4th

January 2007

6 Comments Add Yours ↓

4Trackbacks/Pingbacks

Your Comment

About Scott Kveton

Recent Tweets

Archives

Tags Cloud

Latest Post