Scott Kveton

I got another email a week ago asking some more questions about open source, etc. Instead of penning a response and sending it directly to the person asking, I thought I would blog it and respond that way (in case anybody else cares):

“Hello Scott, My name is ***** ***** and I am a student at Clackamas Community College. I am writing a term paper and the topic I have selected is “The future of open source technology”. I have a few questions in which it would be much appreciated if you have the time to answer.”

1) What do you think the future holds for open source technologies?

The biggest thing I think we’re going to see in the (near) future are tools that are geared for collaboration between non-geeks. For so long we’ve been seeing technology for the sake of technology; geeks writing code to help them write more code. However, as that software developed, it started moving up the social stack. Instead of just email, diff and patch, we now have truly collaborative tools like wiki’s, instant messaging (yes, this covers a lot of ground), blogs, etc that help us disseminate, aggregate and most importantly collaborate.

I see the future bringing these tools to the masses. If I were a novice developer or a lawyer or a doctor, its rather daunting to collaborate. The tools for them just aren’t there yet. However, as these software development technologies mature, they get easier to put in front of joe-shmoe user. Once you can collaborate on documents, talk with the people that you want (either via messaging, voice or video) then we’ll really start to see things take off. The possibilities will be endless.

2) Do you perceive it as “the wave of the future”?

I don’t really view open source as the wave of the future; more like an echo from the past. All we’re seeing with open source is the commodization of an industry. As time goes on, processes and practices are developed to drive the cost of anything down. The fact is, margins on software have always been high, sometimes into the 95% range. Tim Witham from the OSDL said it best, “we’re entering the age of software by the ton”.

Now, if you say “wave of the future” as in we’ll see more collaboration on a global scale, then yes, I totally agree with that. Tools that enable communities to form across the Internet will continue to grow as those tools emerge and then mature. It’s inevitable.

3) What is the current niche of open source operating systems?

I think what this question is asking is where are open source operating systems doing the best right now?

Open source operating systems (and by this I can only assume Linux and some of the BSD’s) are starting to take hold in just about every facet of the marketplace. From servers to desktops down to your cell phone Linux is gaining ground at a phenomenal rate.

Adoption of Linux on the desktop is taking far longer in places with lots of deployed Windows infrastructure. Places like North America and parts of Europe are pretty heavily invested in Windows and the barrier to switch is simply too much (and rightfully so). However, the emerging markets are another story. If you’re starting from square one with your computing infrastructure, something like open source and Linux make perfect sense. The ability to customize these applications for specific locales also helps quite a bit; some companies simply cannot afford to develop localized versions of their software so those regions have to “make do” with what’s available.

On the server side, Linux is quickly gaining ground. Linux is a great play for companies that have deployed VMS or Unix systems already. It is also an excellent choice for organizations that starting from ground zero; if I start a company that needs lots of computing cycles I’m most likely going to leverage Linux just to save on the licensing costs.

The embedded market is also starting to gain ground. Vendors can customize Linux to however they want giving them complete control not only of their platforms but of their own destiny. No upstream vendor is going to change direction or plans on you if you’re using Linux at the core.

4) What are the advantages and disadvantages of open source operating systems at present?

Whoa. Man, I could go on for hours about this but I’ll try to keep it short and sweet:

Pros: Control of destiny, licensing cost savings, ability to customize and greater security (yes, that’s a can of worms but I really believe it).

Cons: Questions about intellectual property rights around open source, the barrier to entry can be difficult, lack of talented developers/users/consumers around open source and little or no marketing.

Like I said, I could elaborate on all of those but that’s what comes to mind for me off the top of my head.